Filed under: RUSI Journal | Tags: Pakistan, radicalization, terrorism, UK
This is a bit of an unfair one for those of you not either members of RUSI or able to access their journal online or in hardcopy, but I have a new article out in the latest RUSI Journal looking at the issue of Predator strikes in Pakistan. While the focus of the piece was meant to be the impact this was having in the UK, and looking in great detail at the Pakistan-UK connection, the final draft was too long and the editors were rather ruthless in shortening it. Still, I guess this means it leaves me with plenty of fodder to write something else somewhere.
Deep Impact: The Effect of Drone Attacks on British Counter-Terrorism
Oct 2009, Vol. 154, No. 5
By Raffaello Pantucci
The use of drones against targets along the Pakistani border has been a controversial tactic in the prolonged war in Afghanistan, though one that looks set to be a key part of Obama’s future strategy. But drone strikes are part of a complex chain of events, providing fuel for the jihad fire; for the UK in particular, the strikes have a significant domestic impact upon its large Pakistani minority that should not be ignored.
http://www.rusi.org/publications/journal/ref:A4AEB04E7DECEF/
Filed under: Jamestown Foundation | Tags: AQIM, Europe, France, nuclear, radicalization, terrorism
More for Jamestown Foundation on the case of Adelene Hicheur, the French-Algerian chap who worked on the infamous Large Hadyron Collider and was apparently in contact with Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. A strange case in which all the details are not clear, and will unlikely be clear any time soon, though it remains unclear that this was really part of some kind of nuclear powered Al Qaeda plot.
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=35673
Al Qaeda’s Nuclear Scientist? The Case of Adlene Hicheur
Publication: Terrorism Monitor Volume: 7 Issue: 32
October 30, 2009 09:02 AM Age: 1 days
Category: Terrorism Monitor, Global Terrorism Analysis, Home Page, Terrorism, Europe, Featured
Amidst much furor, French anti-terrorism judge Christophe Tessier announced that year-old Algerian-French scientist Dr. Adlene Hicheur had been brought up on charges of “association with terrorists” on October 12. Allegedly in contact with al-Qaeda’s North African affiliate, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Dr. Hicheur was arrested with his 25-year old brother (later released) in Vienne, France on October 8 after an 18-month investigation headed by France’s internal security service, the Direction centrale du renseignement intérieur (Central Directorate of Interior Intelligence – DCRI) (Le Monde, October 14).
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Filed under: Free Rad!cals | Tags: Europe, Italy, lone wolves, radicalization, terrorism
Well, for those of you who are avid followers, good news! I will now be producing more regularly over at the FreeRad!cals website run by the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence (tidily abbreviated to ICSR) – in fact, I have now already gotten started, here is a brief bio/introductory piece and below is my first article. I am hoping to regularly cross post between the two, and welcome any thoughts on either site.
(One final comment, I am hoping that Lone Wolf Pack will become part of the canon of radicalization-speak – anyone see it anywhere else, please give me a heads-up!)
http://icsr.info/blog/Lone-Wolves-Pack-stalks-Milan
Lone Wolves Pack stalks Milan
View more articles by Raff Pantucci
Filed under: Europe, Radicalisation
A couple of weeks have passed since 35-year old Libyan Mohamed Game attempted, in an alleged revenge for Italian involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq, to carry out a suicide attack on the Santa Barbara army barracks in Milan, where forces going to Afghanistan are based.
Using a fertilizer-based explosive concealed in a tool box, Game detonated his bomb in the morning of October 12, apparently as a reference to 12 November 2003 when a suicide bomber blew up an Italian military police base in Iraq killing 19 Italians. The bomb failed to completely explode, mutilating Game (his hand was amputated, he was blinded by shrapnel and remains on life support), while only injuring one guard at the base.
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Filed under: Australian Strategic Policy Institute | Tags: australia, radicalization, shabab, Somalia, terrorism
A short policy paper for an Australian think tank the Australian Strategic Policy Institute which explores the Western al-Shabaab networks – in other words tries to understand the actual meaning of all these increasing links people see between the Somali group and others abroad. My own sense is that the immediate external threat is unclear and we run the risk of overblowing it, but I understand that this might evolve over time. One group I have written about before that might merit a mention are omitted for sub judice concerns. Any thoughts or contradictions would be most appreciated – in particular any hints about other networks that might emerge over time.
Understanding the al-Shabaab networks
by Raffaello Pantucci
Tuesday, 13 October 2009
The Australian Government on 21 August 2009 officially listed the al-Shabaab group as a terrorist organisation. This paper examines the danger posed by the Somali-based group, and concludes that we are likely to see an increase in Westernised Muslims appearing on the battlefield in Somalia. Eventually we will see some of these men come home. It would not be surprising if there was an increase in localised targeting by these people of Western interests.
http://www.aspi.org.au/publications/publication_details.aspx?ContentID=226&pubtype=-1
My latest for Jamestown, this time looking once again at the German Jihad and particularly its new rising star Bekkay Harrach. While the elections seem to have passed without a hitch, his threat still holds and we shall see if he has something to push through.
Still having to access this through awkward means, so apologies for the fact that this one and the last are both printed as one long text. Hoping to be able to fix this in the next week or so.
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=35563
Bekkay Harrach: The Face of German Terror
Publication: Terrorism Monitor Volume: 7 Issue: 30
October 1, 2009
By: Raffaello Pantucci
Germany’s federal elections passed without incident on September 27, though they took place against a backdrop of intense concern in the German security services about a growing number of increasingly pointed al-Qaeda videos threatening Germany over its military deployment in Afghanistan. These messages included a videotape from Osama bin Laden on September 25, entitled “To the Peoples of Europe.” The video had English and German subtitles along with footage of German cities and monuments (Al-Fajr Media Center, September 25). The message appeared only two days before the German elections. Germany has 4,200 troops in northern Afghanistan, where they have come under more frequent attack in the last year as the Taliban insurgency spreads.
While the message from bin Laden is alarming, it appeared to only incidentally target Germany, without the terrorist leader naming it specifically. A more direct threat came from a series of videos released by Bekkay Harrach (a.k.a. Abu Talha al-Alamani), a Moroccan-born German citizen who has joined al-Qaeda in the Afghanistan-Pakistan frontier region.
Filed under: HSToday | Tags: Pakistan, terrorism, Transatlantic Affairs, UK
My latest for HSToday, this one looking specifically at the transatlantic tensions between the UK and U.S. as a result of the conclusion of the recent trial against the group who were plotting to bring down a series of planes flying from the UK to North America. This is not to overplay the tensions, but this was the specific angle being explored here, and there has been a great deal of coverage about the trial more generally.
http://www.hstoday.us/content/view/10333/152/
The Plot ‘Bigger Than 9/11’ Causes Transatlantic Tensions
by Raffaello Pantucci
Tuesday, 22 September 2009
IEDs would have been enough to blow hole in hulls of pressurized passenger jets
Coinciding with the commemoration of the 8th anniversary of Al Qaeda’s September 11, 2001 attack on the United States, a jury at Woolwich Crown Court in London found three British Muslims guilty of plotting to simultaneously bring down seven passenger planes on transatlantic routes.
However, while the British government has been keen to highlight success of the trial as a victory in the fight against international terrorism, tensions have been exposed in the transatlantic partnership against Al Qaeda.
Filed under: Jamestown Foundation | Tags: radicalization, shabab, Somalia, terrorism
My latest for Jamestown, this time exploring the intricacies of what happened in Melbourne earlier this year in the alleged plot with links to Shabab. It seems as though some of the men may have been to train with the group, though it does not look like it was necessarily an externally directed plot. I suppose more clarity will come out in due course. Keep an eye on this space for a more detailed look at this and how it fits into other apparently Shabab linked groups around the world soon.
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=35478
Did Somalia’s al-Shabaab Plan to Attack the Australian Military?
Publication: Terrorism Monitor Volume: 7 Issue: 27
September 10, 2009 06:04 PM Age: 3 days
Category: Terrorism Monitor, Global Terrorism Analysis, Home Page, Terrorism, Africa
By: Raffaello Pantucci
Operation Neath, one of the largest counterterrorism operations in Australian history, culminated in a series of early morning raids in Melbourne on August 4. The four men arrested were all Australian citizens of Lebanese or Somali descent and apparently part of a larger group of 18 individuals under observation by police (The Australian, August 4). In a press conference on the day of the arrests, police laid out their central charge that the men were “planning to carry out a suicide terrorist attack” on an Australian military base using “automatic weapons” in “a sustained attack on military personnel until they themselves were killed.” According to police, some individuals in the plot had been to and presumably trained in Somalia, and had sought a “fatwa” (religious ruling) that would authorize them to carry out attacks in Australia. [1]
Another piece looking in greater detail at the Isa Ibrahim case – am hoping to build this all into something bigger looking at lone wolf terrorism in the UK. Any thoughts or comments or pointers very welcome.
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=35341
Britain Jails “Lone Wolf” Terrorist Isa Ibrahim
Publication: Terrorism Monitor Volume: 7 Issue: 23
July 30, 2009
Category: Terrorism Monitor, Home Page, Terrorism, Europe
By: Raffaello Pantucci
A jury at Winchester Crown Court in the U.K. returned a guilty verdict on July 17 in the case against “lone wolf” terrorist Andrew “Isa” Ibrahim, a 20 year-old British citizen accused of plotting a suicide bombing at a mall in Bristol, a large city west of London. Accused of “making an explosive substance with intent,” “preparation of a terrorist act” and having already pled guilty to “making an explosive substance,” Ibrahim was found guilty on all charges and sentenced to 10 years of incarceration (Crown Prosecution Service News, July 17; Bristol Evening News, July 17).
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It has been a while since anything has come out, but a couple of longer pieces in the pipeline and working on a tough thing in a foreign field have kept me from publishing much. But don’t worry avid followers, more is forthcoming to keep you sated…In the meantime, here is a shorter piece for HSToday about the downgrading of the threat in the UK.
http://www.hstoday.us/content/view/9594/152/
UK recalibrates terror threat level
by Raffaello Pantucci
Thursday, 30 July 2009
Lowering of threat level by British authorities reflects increasing fragmentation of terror networks.
As the UK passed the fourth anniversary of the July 7, 2005 bombings, Home Secretary Alan Johnson announced that the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC) had decided to lower “the UK threat level from international terrorism from severe to substantial.” He went on to clarify that this meant that in the government’s eyes, “a terrorist attack is a strong possibility” but “based on the very latest intelligence, considering factors such as capability, intent and timescale,” it was now lower than before.
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This article makes a similar point to my earlier one in EU Observer (http://raffaellopantucci.wordpress.com/2009/05/12/europes-threat-from-pakistan/), but is instead in more direct response to one in the current Europe’s World journal by (http://www.europesworld.org/NewFrancais/Accueil/Article/tabid/190/ArticleType/ArticleView/ArticleID/21416/BlueprintforanEUroleinObamasAfPakstrategy.aspx) – apologies again for all the links, but unfortunately, am still having trouble posting properly.
Anyway, these piece have also attracted some media interest including this piece: http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/european-union/090615/eu-pakistan-summit – which is an interesting news outlet that I would commend to any readers.
http://www.europesworld.org/NewEnglish/Home/Article/tabid/191/ArticleType/ArticleView/ArticleID/21456/EuropesrealAfPakproblemisthatourpoliticianshavenotconvincedpublicopinion.aspx
Europe’s real AfPak problem is that our politicians have not convinced public opinion
Summer 2009
by Raffaello Pantucci
Shada Islam presents a sensible, if perhaps overly optimistic, view of European objectives on “AfPak”. It is hard to disagree with many of her fundamental points, in particular that greater coordination on Central-South Asia would be a boon to European and American interests in the region.
Unfortunately, the reality is that such coordination is still lacking and we are unlikely to see a greater push under an EU banner. More European involvement in any sort of “civilian surge” would be welcome, but will be unrealistic until the security situation is stabilised.
