Filed under: Australian Strategic Policy Institute | Tags: australia, radicalization, shabab, Somalia, terrorism
A short policy paper for an Australian think tank the Australian Strategic Policy Institute which explores the Western al-Shabaab networks – in other words tries to understand the actual meaning of all these increasing links people see between the Somali group and others abroad. My own sense is that the immediate external threat is unclear and we run the risk of overblowing it, but I understand that this might evolve over time. One group I have written about before that might merit a mention are omitted for sub judice concerns. Any thoughts or contradictions would be most appreciated – in particular any hints about other networks that might emerge over time.
Understanding the al-Shabaab networks
by Raffaello Pantucci
Tuesday, 13 October 2009
The Australian Government on 21 August 2009 officially listed the al-Shabaab group as a terrorist organisation. This paper examines the danger posed by the Somali-based group, and concludes that we are likely to see an increase in Westernised Muslims appearing on the battlefield in Somalia. Eventually we will see some of these men come home. It would not be surprising if there was an increase in localised targeting by these people of Western interests.
http://www.aspi.org.au/publications/publication_details.aspx?ContentID=226&pubtype=-1
Filed under: Jamestown Foundation | Tags: radicalization, shabab, Somalia, terrorism
My latest for Jamestown, this time exploring the intricacies of what happened in Melbourne earlier this year in the alleged plot with links to Shabab. It seems as though some of the men may have been to train with the group, though it does not look like it was necessarily an externally directed plot. I suppose more clarity will come out in due course. Keep an eye on this space for a more detailed look at this and how it fits into other apparently Shabab linked groups around the world soon.
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=35478
Did Somalia’s al-Shabaab Plan to Attack the Australian Military?
Publication: Terrorism Monitor Volume: 7 Issue: 27
September 10, 2009 06:04 PM Age: 3 days
Category: Terrorism Monitor, Global Terrorism Analysis, Home Page, Terrorism, Africa
By: Raffaello Pantucci
Operation Neath, one of the largest counterterrorism operations in Australian history, culminated in a series of early morning raids in Melbourne on August 4. The four men arrested were all Australian citizens of Lebanese or Somali descent and apparently part of a larger group of 18 individuals under observation by police (The Australian, August 4). In a press conference on the day of the arrests, police laid out their central charge that the men were “planning to carry out a suicide terrorist attack” on an Australian military base using “automatic weapons” in “a sustained attack on military personnel until they themselves were killed.” According to police, some individuals in the plot had been to and presumably trained in Somalia, and had sought a “fatwa” (religious ruling) that would authorize them to carry out attacks in Australia. [1]
My latest for HSToday, which I have not contributed to for a while, though as well as this one I now have another one coming up in the latest magazine as well. This one explores the connection between the UK and Al Qaeda in Pakistan, the second attempt at the trial against the airline plotters, and also touches upon the new stories to have emerged about Britons going to fight abroad. Not something new, but given what has happened in the past, potentially dangerous.
http://www.hstoday.us/content/view/7518/152/
UK Jihadists’ Have Ties to Al Qaeda in Pakistan, Afghanistan
by Raffaello Pantucci Friday, 06 March 2009
Authorities are concerned hardened fighters may return to plot attacks in Britain
The conclusion last year in the British trial of jihadists who allegedly were planning to bring down as many as 18 eighteen passenger jets in transit from London to North America with liquid explosives was a disappointment to the British security services.
