Filed under: Jamestown Foundation | Tags: AQIM, Europe, France, nuclear, radicalization, terrorism
More for Jamestown Foundation on the case of Adelene Hicheur, the French-Algerian chap who worked on the infamous Large Hadyron Collider and was apparently in contact with Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. A strange case in which all the details are not clear, and will unlikely be clear any time soon, though it remains unclear that this was really part of some kind of nuclear powered Al Qaeda plot.
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=35673
Al Qaeda’s Nuclear Scientist? The Case of Adlene Hicheur
Publication: Terrorism Monitor Volume: 7 Issue: 32
October 30, 2009 09:02 AM Age: 1 days
Category: Terrorism Monitor, Global Terrorism Analysis, Home Page, Terrorism, Europe, Featured
Amidst much furor, French anti-terrorism judge Christophe Tessier announced that year-old Algerian-French scientist Dr. Adlene Hicheur had been brought up on charges of “association with terrorists” on October 12. Allegedly in contact with al-Qaeda’s North African affiliate, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Dr. Hicheur was arrested with his 25-year old brother (later released) in Vienne, France on October 8 after an 18-month investigation headed by France’s internal security service, the Direction centrale du renseignement intérieur (Central Directorate of Interior Intelligence – DCRI) (Le Monde, October 14).
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Filed under: Free Rad!cals | Tags: Europe, Italy, lone wolves, radicalization, terrorism
Well, for those of you who are avid followers, good news! I will now be producing more regularly over at the FreeRad!cals website run by the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence (tidily abbreviated to ICSR) – in fact, I have now already gotten started, here is a brief bio/introductory piece and below is my first article. I am hoping to regularly cross post between the two, and welcome any thoughts on either site.
(One final comment, I am hoping that Lone Wolf Pack will become part of the canon of radicalization-speak – anyone see it anywhere else, please give me a heads-up!)
http://icsr.info/blog/Lone-Wolves-Pack-stalks-Milan
Lone Wolves Pack stalks Milan
View more articles by Raff Pantucci
Filed under: Europe, Radicalisation
A couple of weeks have passed since 35-year old Libyan Mohamed Game attempted, in an alleged revenge for Italian involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq, to carry out a suicide attack on the Santa Barbara army barracks in Milan, where forces going to Afghanistan are based.
Using a fertilizer-based explosive concealed in a tool box, Game detonated his bomb in the morning of October 12, apparently as a reference to 12 November 2003 when a suicide bomber blew up an Italian military police base in Iraq killing 19 Italians. The bomb failed to completely explode, mutilating Game (his hand was amputated, he was blinded by shrapnel and remains on life support), while only injuring one guard at the base.
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Filed under: Australian Strategic Policy Institute | Tags: australia, radicalization, shabab, Somalia, terrorism
A short policy paper for an Australian think tank the Australian Strategic Policy Institute which explores the Western al-Shabaab networks – in other words tries to understand the actual meaning of all these increasing links people see between the Somali group and others abroad. My own sense is that the immediate external threat is unclear and we run the risk of overblowing it, but I understand that this might evolve over time. One group I have written about before that might merit a mention are omitted for sub judice concerns. Any thoughts or contradictions would be most appreciated – in particular any hints about other networks that might emerge over time.
Understanding the al-Shabaab networks
by Raffaello Pantucci
Tuesday, 13 October 2009
The Australian Government on 21 August 2009 officially listed the al-Shabaab group as a terrorist organisation. This paper examines the danger posed by the Somali-based group, and concludes that we are likely to see an increase in Westernised Muslims appearing on the battlefield in Somalia. Eventually we will see some of these men come home. It would not be surprising if there was an increase in localised targeting by these people of Western interests.
http://www.aspi.org.au/publications/publication_details.aspx?ContentID=226&pubtype=-1
Filed under: Jamestown Foundation | Tags: radicalization, shabab, Somalia, terrorism
My latest for Jamestown, this time exploring the intricacies of what happened in Melbourne earlier this year in the alleged plot with links to Shabab. It seems as though some of the men may have been to train with the group, though it does not look like it was necessarily an externally directed plot. I suppose more clarity will come out in due course. Keep an eye on this space for a more detailed look at this and how it fits into other apparently Shabab linked groups around the world soon.
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=35478
Did Somalia’s al-Shabaab Plan to Attack the Australian Military?
Publication: Terrorism Monitor Volume: 7 Issue: 27
September 10, 2009 06:04 PM Age: 3 days
Category: Terrorism Monitor, Global Terrorism Analysis, Home Page, Terrorism, Africa
By: Raffaello Pantucci
Operation Neath, one of the largest counterterrorism operations in Australian history, culminated in a series of early morning raids in Melbourne on August 4. The four men arrested were all Australian citizens of Lebanese or Somali descent and apparently part of a larger group of 18 individuals under observation by police (The Australian, August 4). In a press conference on the day of the arrests, police laid out their central charge that the men were “planning to carry out a suicide terrorist attack” on an Australian military base using “automatic weapons” in “a sustained attack on military personnel until they themselves were killed.” According to police, some individuals in the plot had been to and presumably trained in Somalia, and had sought a “fatwa” (religious ruling) that would authorize them to carry out attacks in Australia. [1]
It has been a while since anything has come out, but a couple of longer pieces in the pipeline and working on a tough thing in a foreign field have kept me from publishing much. But don’t worry avid followers, more is forthcoming to keep you sated…In the meantime, here is a shorter piece for HSToday about the downgrading of the threat in the UK.
http://www.hstoday.us/content/view/9594/152/
UK recalibrates terror threat level
by Raffaello Pantucci
Thursday, 30 July 2009
Lowering of threat level by British authorities reflects increasing fragmentation of terror networks.
As the UK passed the fourth anniversary of the July 7, 2005 bombings, Home Secretary Alan Johnson announced that the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC) had decided to lower “the UK threat level from international terrorism from severe to substantial.” He went on to clarify that this meant that in the government’s eyes, “a terrorist attack is a strong possibility” but “based on the very latest intelligence, considering factors such as capability, intent and timescale,” it was now lower than before.
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Filed under: Jamestown Foundation, Uncategorized | Tags: al muhajiroun, homeland security, radicalization, terrorism, UK
It has been a while since i last posted and apologies for regular visitors. I have moved to a new part of the globe and am taking on something which is occupying rather a lot of my time and where posting is actually proving quite hard, so apologies for the long post all in one gulp. Additionally, I have been writing longer pieces for various journals which are still in the academic pipeline. No matter, here is my latest for Jamestown, which explores the debate in the UK about whether to engage or not with extremists and goes into a little bit of detail about the newly “refreshed” counterterrorism strategy. I had some shorter things written on this which I never managed to find a home for. No matter, any thoughts or comments would be most welcome.
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=34898
British Government Debates Engagement with Radical Islam in New Counterterrorism Strategy
Publication: Terrorism Monitor Volume: 7 Issue: 10
April 24, 2009 11:10 AM Age: 13 hrs
Category: Terrorism Monitor, Global Terrorism Analysis, Home Page, Military/Security, Europe
By: Raffaello Pantucci
Britain’s much vaunted “Contest” counterterrorism strategy underwent what has been described as a “refresh” in March 2009. Building on the British government’s experiences on the front-line of terrorism both at home and abroad, the re-vamped strategy was referred to as a “reworking rather than a fundamental overhaul” (BBC, March 24). Elsewhere in the British media, the Guardian declared the new strategy was “in disarray” even before it had been launched, while the Times focused on the elevated emphasis put upon the threat from “dirty bombs” (Guardian, March 26; Times, March 25). A core ideological debate that has occupied the airwaves and that was deftly avoided in the final text, however, was the question of whether the British government should engage or confront non-violent Islamists in order to effectively prevent terrorism.
More for the Guardian Comment is Free which is always fun as it attracts some interesting responses and rather immediately too. So far only a few by the looks of it, but maybe more. I also see they still have that diabolical picture of me. This builds on something I have written previously for Jamestown, and would be a fascinating source of further research, but unfortunately no direct leads at the moment. Any thoughts or reactions, or pointers to other interesting work on this subject very welcome.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/feb/03/islam-prisonsandprobation
UK prisons: incubators for terrorism?
If we refuse to help prisoners who convert to Islam in prison, especially after they leave, the indoctrination will continue
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- guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 4 February 2009 14.10 GMT
Much of the coverage into Dame Anne Owers’ report about Long Lartin prison focused upon the growth of gangs. Conjuring images of television prison violence, one prisoner reported that “all violence is gang related” and the prison was turning into “an American style jail”. An underlying issue that was only hinted at in the report is the problem of the spread of violent Islamist extremist ideas in prisons.
The actual problem itself is very hard to quantify or measure: prison services are notoriously closed mouthed, and the spread of violent Islamist ideologies are hard to measure in any objective way. What is certain, however, is that there are clear precedents of individuals radicalised in British prisons who went on to attempt to carry out terrorist attacks: Richard Reid the “shoe bomber” and 21 July 2005 plot leader Muktar Said Ibrahim were both radicalised while serving prison terms for petty crime, and a significant number of other individuals who have been incarcerated on terrorism charges have also spent some time in prison. Overall it is estimated that there are somewhere between 90 to 130 prisoners currently in Britain’s prisons for “al-Qaida-linked or influenced” offences, including a number who are proselytising leaders like Abu Izzadeen, Abu Qatada and Abu Hamza.
Filed under: Chartered Insurance Institute | Tags: radicalization, terrorism, UK
This is a longer one off piece that I have done for the Chartered Insurance Institute (CII), it draws on work that I have contributed previously that we have done for other parts of the insurance industry, on home-grown terror in the UK, and terrorism in Southeast Asia. This analyzes the threat, offers some thoughts on what business can do and some description on how the insurance industry works in these matters.
Here is the finished product, am not pasting any of it below, as it is all a pdf: http://www.cii.co.uk/downloaddata/TP_Responding_to_the_Terrorist_Threat_20_Jan_2009.pdf
My latest on the Guardian’s Comment is Free website. I see it has sparked off some debate, though i also see the Doctor’s plot trial in the UK started today as well, which i now somewhat regret not referencing in some way. Oh well, that’ll be for next time.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/oct/09/communities.religion?commentpage=1
Community is key to tackling Islamic extremism
The ‘Prevent’ strand of counter-terrorism is difficult to implement. But security services should see those at risk individuals first.
The British government is reported to be overhauling its counter-terrorism strategy. The threat is apparently as high as ever and there are heightened fears about the appearance of “lone wolf” terrorists self-radicalising and moving into action without the usual connections to known networks.
At the core of this overhaul is an apparent revision of the “prevent” strand of the policy and the problem of measuring success in this opaque field.
