This article makes a similar point to my earlier one in EU Observer (http://raffaellopantucci.wordpress.com/2009/05/12/europes-threat-from-pakistan/), but is instead in more direct response to one in the current Europe’s World journal by (http://www.europesworld.org/NewFrancais/Accueil/Article/tabid/190/ArticleType/ArticleView/ArticleID/21416/BlueprintforanEUroleinObamasAfPakstrategy.aspx) – apologies again for all the links, but unfortunately, am still having trouble posting properly.
Anyway, these piece have also attracted some media interest including this piece: http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/european-union/090615/eu-pakistan-summit – which is an interesting news outlet that I would commend to any readers.
http://www.europesworld.org/NewEnglish/Home/Article/tabid/191/ArticleType/ArticleView/ArticleID/21456/EuropesrealAfPakproblemisthatourpoliticianshavenotconvincedpublicopinion.aspx
Europe’s real AfPak problem is that our politicians have not convinced public opinion
Summer 2009
by Raffaello Pantucci
Shada Islam presents a sensible, if perhaps overly optimistic, view of European objectives on “AfPak”. It is hard to disagree with many of her fundamental points, in particular that greater coordination on Central-South Asia would be a boon to European and American interests in the region.
Unfortunately, the reality is that such coordination is still lacking and we are unlikely to see a greater push under an EU banner. More European involvement in any sort of “civilian surge” would be welcome, but will be unrealistic until the security situation is stabilised.
My latest for the Jamestown Foundation which somewhat builds on previous work I have done for them about Abu Qatada. For those interested, I would naturally commend you to read my previous post looking at his “Comfortable British Jihad” (http://raffaellopantucci.wordpress.com/2008/07/10/abu-qatadas-comfortable-british-jihad/), and I am sure he will be a topic for future writing given the fact that I see no resolution to his current incarceration status (again, sorry for the links, still abroad).
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=35003
British Hostage Threatened with Death Unless Abu Qatada is Released from British Prison
Raffaello Pantucci
Warnings continue to come from Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) that time is running out for the British government if it wants to obtain the release of a kidnapped British tourist by freeing imprisoned al-Qaeda ideologue Abu Qatada al-Filistini (Ennahar [Algiers], May 2). While Austrian and Canadian hostages were recently released, AQIM issued a statement on April 27 giving the UK government 20 days to release Abu Qatada before their British captive is killed (Guardian, April 27; BBC, April 27). Abu Qatada is currently awaiting possible deportation to Jordan, where he faces a variety of terrorism-related charges (see Terrorism Monitor, July 11, 2008).
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Filed under: EU Observer | Tags: counter-radicalization, Europe, Pakistan, terrorism
This is a long article for an op-ed, I have actually been circulating the idea for a while but finally found a good home for it. Some mention of the recent Europol report (1) or the upcoming EU-Pakistan Summit (2) would have probably been worthwhile, but no matter. My main point is that continental European government’s need to be a little clearer about what they are trying to achieve in AfPak as otherwise they might face sudden shocks. As if to reinforce my point, I see that the Italian police have just arrested a couple of alleged terrorists in Bari for plotting, radicalizing and organizing to help people travel to fight jihad (3).
1: http://www.europol.europa.eu/publications/EU_Terrorism_Situation_and_Trend_Report_TE-SAT/TESAT2009.pdf
2: http://euobserver.com/9/28104
3: http://www.corriere.it/cronache/09_maggio_12/al_qaeda_terroristi_arrestati_bari_f81b144c-3eb3-11de-914a-00144f02aabc.shtml
And here is the actual article, sorry for these links, I have been having probs hyperlinking where I am.
http://euobserver.com/?aid=28103
[Comment] Europe’s threat from Pakistan
RAFFAELLO PANTUCCI
11.05.2009 @ 18:21 CET
EUOBSERVER / COMMENT – During a recent visit to Pakistan, Britain’s Prime Minister Gordon Brown stated that a third of terror plots in the UK have connections to that beleaguered country.
In a press conference with President Asif Zardari he went on to state that with a set of new proposed measures, he hoped to “break the chain of terror that links the mountains of Afghanistan and Pakistan to the streets of the UK.”
But while the UK seems to have taken a view that there is a very real threat to Europe that needs to be engaged with in Afghanistan and Pakistan and makes the case regularly to its public, there is remarkably little sensible public discussion on such matters from other European capitals.
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Filed under: HSToday | Tags: counter-radicalization, Europe, guantanamo, legal, terrorism, UK, US foreign policy
This is a slightly older piece that I actually missed when it first ran, which I suppose is quite embarrassing. It was originally meant to run in the monthly magazine I write for Homeland Security today (www.hstoday.us), but in the end it got shunted to the website. It is in essence a counter-terrorism perspective from Europe on Obama’s first 100 days. Some of the information could do with a little updating, but frankly the things I would say probably appear in other things that I have written (or have coming up soon). I would be very grateful for any other thoughts on this one – especially from those who think I have left anything off.
http://www.hstoday.us/content/view/8275/149/
European Views on the First 100 Days
by Raffaello Pantucci
Tuesday, 28 April 2009
Europeans view Obama’s change initiatives on counter-terror front with hopefulness, and caveats.
Prior to his election, European expectations of Barack Obama’s presidency were at almost stratospheric levels. Across the continent, European leaders and publics salivated in anticipation of the new president – and nowhere was this more true than in the United Kingdom, where celebrations of the Obama victory resonated on all sides of the political aisle.
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More for Comment is Free for the Guardian (still burdened with that awful picture) – this time looking at the presentational problems which the British government is having with terrorist trials and cases. It is a problem since it is worrisome how much this is exacerbating a long-term problem – and it is very hard to definitively know one way or the other which way it goes. As is usual with CiF, some interesting comments and some which appear not to have actually read the text at hand. Charming.
More on this topic on the way with some other publications I write regularly for, as well as some longer academic pieces which will invariably take months to appear. Big editorial hat tip is owed to a friend and Institute member from Birmingham. As ever, thoughts, comments, links, etc are very welcome.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/may/04/terrorism-policy-july-7-trials
Appearance is key in tackling terrorism
The number of terrorist suspects cleared after blundered arrests provides a public relations disaster for the government
- guardian.co.uk, Monday 4 May 2009 13.00 BST
The conclusion of the trial of the three men accused of being co-conspirators of the 7/7 bombers means it is unlikely anyone is going to be convicted for that terrible crime.
Furthermore, the conclusion of the trial and a number of other recent events and trials in British counterterrorism all suggest one of two things: either the British government is chasing the wrong people, or the British legal system is unfit for purpose in effectively countering the terrorism the government thinks it is fighting.
Filed under: Jamestown Foundation, Uncategorized | Tags: al muhajiroun, homeland security, radicalization, terrorism, UK
It has been a while since i last posted and apologies for regular visitors. I have moved to a new part of the globe and am taking on something which is occupying rather a lot of my time and where posting is actually proving quite hard, so apologies for the long post all in one gulp. Additionally, I have been writing longer pieces for various journals which are still in the academic pipeline. No matter, here is my latest for Jamestown, which explores the debate in the UK about whether to engage or not with extremists and goes into a little bit of detail about the newly “refreshed” counterterrorism strategy. I had some shorter things written on this which I never managed to find a home for. No matter, any thoughts or comments would be most welcome.
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=34898
British Government Debates Engagement with Radical Islam in New Counterterrorism Strategy
Publication: Terrorism Monitor Volume: 7 Issue: 10
April 24, 2009 11:10 AM Age: 13 hrs
Category: Terrorism Monitor, Global Terrorism Analysis, Home Page, Military/Security, Europe
By: Raffaello Pantucci
Britain’s much vaunted “Contest” counterterrorism strategy underwent what has been described as a “refresh” in March 2009. Building on the British government’s experiences on the front-line of terrorism both at home and abroad, the re-vamped strategy was referred to as a “reworking rather than a fundamental overhaul” (BBC, March 24). Elsewhere in the British media, the Guardian declared the new strategy was “in disarray” even before it had been launched, while the Times focused on the elevated emphasis put upon the threat from “dirty bombs” (Guardian, March 26; Times, March 25). A core ideological debate that has occupied the airwaves and that was deftly avoided in the final text, however, was the question of whether the British government should engage or confront non-violent Islamists in order to effectively prevent terrorism.
My latest for HSToday, which I have not contributed to for a while, though as well as this one I now have another one coming up in the latest magazine as well. This one explores the connection between the UK and Al Qaeda in Pakistan, the second attempt at the trial against the airline plotters, and also touches upon the new stories to have emerged about Britons going to fight abroad. Not something new, but given what has happened in the past, potentially dangerous.
http://www.hstoday.us/content/view/7518/152/
UK Jihadists’ Have Ties to Al Qaeda in Pakistan, Afghanistan
by Raffaello Pantucci Friday, 06 March 2009
Authorities are concerned hardened fighters may return to plot attacks in Britain
The conclusion last year in the British trial of jihadists who allegedly were planning to bring down as many as 18 eighteen passenger jets in transit from London to North America with liquid explosives was a disappointment to the British security services.
Been away for a while somewhere I cannot access this, so have been remiss in posting. I have also been working on some longer pieces that means that they are still out for soundings and have not yet actually been published yet. One has through my Institute, but will have to tell you to write to me if you want to see it, and I can send over a copy.
Amusingly, I see that my Qatada piece attracted a lot of hits in the wake of the Law Lords decision on him, maybe this hints that I should do something longer again about his situation. Anyway, in the meantime, here is my latest for Jamestown, it looks at the case of Christian Ganczarski the German-Polish convert who was jailed recently in France.
Polish-Born Muslim Convert Sentenced for Leading Role in Tunisian Synagogue Bombing
A French court has sentenced Christian Ganczarski, a Polish-born German national and convert to Islam, to 18 years in prison for his role in the 2002 bombing of a synagogue in Tunisia. Though Ganczarski has been under suspicion for years, it was only the recent intervention of a shadowy Paris-based counterterrorism center that allowed the long-time al-Qaeda associate to be brought to trial.
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More for the Guardian Comment is Free which is always fun as it attracts some interesting responses and rather immediately too. So far only a few by the looks of it, but maybe more. I also see they still have that diabolical picture of me. This builds on something I have written previously for Jamestown, and would be a fascinating source of further research, but unfortunately no direct leads at the moment. Any thoughts or reactions, or pointers to other interesting work on this subject very welcome.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/feb/03/islam-prisonsandprobation
UK prisons: incubators for terrorism?
If we refuse to help prisoners who convert to Islam in prison, especially after they leave, the indoctrination will continue
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- guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 4 February 2009 14.10 GMT
Much of the coverage into Dame Anne Owers’ report about Long Lartin prison focused upon the growth of gangs. Conjuring images of television prison violence, one prisoner reported that “all violence is gang related” and the prison was turning into “an American style jail”. An underlying issue that was only hinted at in the report is the problem of the spread of violent Islamist extremist ideas in prisons.
The actual problem itself is very hard to quantify or measure: prison services are notoriously closed mouthed, and the spread of violent Islamist ideologies are hard to measure in any objective way. What is certain, however, is that there are clear precedents of individuals radicalised in British prisons who went on to attempt to carry out terrorist attacks: Richard Reid the “shoe bomber” and 21 July 2005 plot leader Muktar Said Ibrahim were both radicalised while serving prison terms for petty crime, and a significant number of other individuals who have been incarcerated on terrorism charges have also spent some time in prison. Overall it is estimated that there are somewhere between 90 to 130 prisoners currently in Britain’s prisons for “al-Qaida-linked or influenced” offences, including a number who are proselytising leaders like Abu Izzadeen, Abu Qatada and Abu Hamza.
Filed under: Jamestown Foundation | Tags: Afghanistan, Germany, Pakistan, terrorism
My latest for Jamestown, looking at Al Qaeda’s new focus on Germany – am also shopping some other piece around about this, but no bites yet. Interesting topic, but hard to know what exactly is going to happen – is this all going to lead to something? Or is it simply hot air? I am also very interested in the parallels between the situation in Germany and that in the UK – happy to expand if anyone is interested.
Afghanistan Deployment puts Germany in al-Qaeda’s Crosshairs
Germany’s Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier tours a German ISAF contingent in Afghanistan (German Federal Foreign Office photo)
Speaking in accented but fluent German, Abu Talha al-Alamani made al-Qaeda’s most direct threat to the German nation yet in a recent video, saying that Germans were “naive and gullible” if they thought they could “emerge unscathed” from being the third-largest troop provider in the NATO alliance in Afghanistan (al-Faloja.info, January 19). The video, released by al-Qaeda’s al-Sahab media wing and entitled “Das Rettungspaket Fuer Deutschland” (The Rescue Package for Germany), first emerged on jihadi websites on January 17 (though it is dated October 2008). The video showed a turbaned individual identified as Abu Talha al-Alamani (Abu Talha the German) brandishing weapons in a rocky environment, before switching to a direct picture of him preaching to the camera. In the half-hour video, Abu Talha declares that it has been his “wish to blow myself up for Allah since 1993,” and provides a nuanced overview of the German political environment highlighting the nation’s involvement in Afghanistan. [1] Germany currently provides over 3,300 troops to the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan and has agreed to increase the size of its deployment to 4,500 troops.
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